Summer Movie Wager

vs.

Updated: 07/17/2019			Devindra 52%		Jeff 10%		David 4%		Germain 23%		Peter 19%
1.	Avengers: Endgame	$852,382,613	☆	13	☆	13	☆	13	☆	13	☆	13
2.	Toy Story 4	$354,417,359	☆	10	☆	10		7		7		7
3.	Aladdin (2019)	$334,233,830		7		3		3		3		3
4.	Spider-Man: Far from Home	$288,932,208		7	☆	10	☆	10	☆	10		7
5.	John Wick 3	$167,921,984	♞	1	♞	1					♞	1
6.	The Secret Life of Pets 2	$148,671,180		7	☆	10	☆	10		7		7
7.	Detective Pikachu	$143,458,742		7	☆	10		7		7		3
8.	Godzilla 2	$109,332,925		7		7		3	♞	1	☆	10
9.	Rocketman	$92,517,085	♞	1				7	♞	1	♞	1
10.	Men in Black International	$77,153,638		5	♞	1	♞	1		7	♞	1
11.	Dark Phoenix	$65,136,062				10.				♞
12.	Annabelle Comes Home	$62,714,449
13.	Yesterday	$50,549,540						♞
				65		65		61		56		53

Follow @SumMovieW

Podium
Place	Devindra	Jeff	David	Peter	Germain
1st	52%	10%	4%	19%	23%
2nd	16%	28%	12%	37%	18%
3rd	19%	24%	29%	27%	22%

The Lion King
Pos	Devindra	Jeff	David	Peter	Germain
2.	22%	0%	18%	30%	47%
3.	68%	19%	5%	4%	24%
4.	57%	15%	5%	7%	28%
5.	65%	11%	3%	5%	26%

Spider-Man: Far from Home
Pos	Devindra	Jeff	David	Peter	Germain
3.	45%	10%	9%	12%	35%
4.	36%	22%	14%	9%	39%

Hobbs & Shaw
Pos	Devindra	Jeff	David	Peter	Germain
5.	24%	46%	0%	8%	35%
6.	29%	6%	0%	1%	69%
7.	37%	7%	1%	17%	47%
8.	60%	1%	6%	36%	10%
9.	54%	0%	10%	41%	0%
10.	90%	0%	3%	7%	0%
Out	74%	4%	8%	23%	2%

The Secret Life of Pets 2
Pos	Devindra	Jeff	David	Peter	Germain
7.	62%	0%	5%	35%	0%
8.	56%	9%	0.65%	25%	15%

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pos	Devindra	Jeff	David	Peter	Germain
6.	63%	11%	8%	17%	14%
7.	60%	10%	8%	14%	19%
8.	55%	11%	0%	14%	26%
9.	50%	8%	0%	19%	32%
10.	14%	1%	0%	44%	45%
Out	69%	18%	7%	7%	4%

Assumptions

Assumptions under which these winning percentages were calculated:

1. The current state and ordering of the board on 07/07/2019 with all released summer movies in terms of domestic box office
is used as starting point. Exceptions in 2.
2. a) 'Toy Story 4' is placed at 2nd.
This means that Aladdin is pushed back one place to 3rd.
b) 'The Lion King (2019)' is placed at 5th.
This means the movie previously at 5th and all subsequent ones are pushed down one position.
3. The top movie at #1 will be 'Avengers: Endgame'. Exceptions in 4.
4. -
5. Released or preset movies (see 2.) dont change their relative position to each other. Exceptions in 6.
6. a) 'Spider-Man: Far from Home' can move up 1 position.
b) 'Secret Life of Pets 2' can move up 1 position.
7. No future released movie will enter the Top Ten. Exceptions in 8.
8. a) 'The Lion King (2019)' can be at any place except Top 1.
b) 'Hobbs & Shaw' can be at any place except Top 4.
c) 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood' can be at any place except Top 5.
9. Each differently ordered or composed Top Ten produced by assumptions 1-8 is a single event,
which has an equal chance of coming true.
10. Events in which two or more players share 1st place are counted for all of them.
Thus adding up all win percentages of all players may exceed 100%.

Distribution

List Comparison

Timeline

Total Score

1.	Devindra Hardawar	☆	65
1.	Jeff Cannata	☆	65
3.	David Chen		61
4.	Germain Lussier		56
5.	Peter Sciretta		53

Upcoming Releases

Jul 19	The Lion King
Jul 26	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Aug 2	Hobbs & Shaw

Devindra Hardawar		Jeff	David	Germain	Peter	Result	65Is Winning.
1.	Avengers: Endgame	0	0	0	0	0	13Current Box Office Pos: 1 Needs to hold its position.
2.	Toy Story 4	0	1	1	1	0	10Current Box Office Pos: 2 Needs to hold its position.
3.	The Lion King	0	1	1	1		Jul 19Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 3 To beat: Aladdin (2019)
4.	Aladdin (2019)	4	3	3	2	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 3 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 4 To undercut: Spider-Man: Far from Home
5.	Spider-Man: Far from Home	1	1	1	0	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 4 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 5 To undercut: John Wick 3
6.	Detective Pikachu	1	2	2	2	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 7 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 6 To beat: The Secret Life of Pets 2
7.	The Secret Life of Pets 2	1	1	2	0	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 6 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 7 To undercut: Detective Pikachu
8.	Men in Black International	♞	♞	1	♞	2	5Current Box Office Pos: 10 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 8 To beat: Godzilla 2
9.	Godzilla 2	0	4	♞	1	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 8 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 9 To undercut: Rocketman
10.	Hobbs & Shaw	5	1	4	1		Aug 2Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 10 To beat: Men in Black International
♞	John Wick 3	♞			♞	5.	1Current Box Office Pos: 5 Needs to stay in the Top Ten.
♞	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	♞	♞	10.	10.		Jul 26Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 10 To beat: Men in Black International
♞	Rocketman		10.	♞	♞	9.	1Current Box Office Pos: 9 Needs to stay in the Top Ten.

Single Biggest Mistake by Devindra: Putting 'Men in Black International' at 8th. Moving it instead to 10th would have yielded a total of 76 points for 1st place.

Jeff Cannata		Devindra	David	Germain	Peter	Result	65Is Winning.
1.	Avengers: Endgame	0	0	0	0	0	13Current Box Office Pos: 1 Needs to hold its position.
2.	Toy Story 4	0	1	1	1	0	10Current Box Office Pos: 2 Needs to hold its position.
3.	The Lion King	0	1	1	1		Jul 19Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 3 To beat: Aladdin (2019)
4.	Spider-Man: Far from Home	1	0	0	1	0	10Current Box Office Pos: 4 Needs to hold its position.
5.	Hobbs & Shaw	5	4	1	4		Aug 2Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 5 To beat: John Wick 3
6.	The Secret Life of Pets 2	1	0	1	1	0	10Current Box Office Pos: 6 Needs to hold its position.
7.	Detective Pikachu	1	1	1	3	0	10Current Box Office Pos: 7 Needs to hold its position.
8.	Aladdin (2019)	4	1	1	2	5	3Current Box Office Pos: 3 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 8 To undercut: Godzilla 2
9.	Godzilla 2	0	4	♞	1	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 8 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 9 To undercut: Rocketman
10.	Dark Phoenix			♞		11.	Current Box Office Pos: 11 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 10 To beat: Men in Black International
♞	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	♞	♞	10.	10.		Jul 26Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 10 To beat: Men in Black International
♞	Men in Black International	8.	♞	9.	♞	10.	1Current Box Office Pos: 10 Needs to stay in the Top Ten.
♞	John Wick 3	♞			♞	5.	1Current Box Office Pos: 5 Needs to stay in the Top Ten.

Single Biggest Mistake by Jeff: Putting 'Dark Phoenix' at 10th. Replacing it instead with 'Men in Black International' would have yielded a total of 77 points for 1st place.

David Chen		Devindra	Jeff	Germain	Peter	Result	61Needs 5 more points for the win.
1.	Avengers: Endgame	0	0	0	0	0	13Current Box Office Pos: 1 Needs to hold its position.
2.	The Lion King	1	1	0	0		Jul 19Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 2 To beat: Toy Story 4
3.	Toy Story 4	1	1	0	0	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 2 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 3 To undercut: Aladdin (2019)
4.	Spider-Man: Far from Home	1	0	0	1	0	10Current Box Office Pos: 4 Needs to hold its position.
5.	Godzilla 2	4	4	♞	3	3	3Current Box Office Pos: 8 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 5 To beat: John Wick 3
6.	The Secret Life of Pets 2	1	0	1	1	0	10Current Box Office Pos: 6 Needs to hold its position.
7.	Aladdin (2019)	3	1	0	1	4	3Current Box Office Pos: 3 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 7 To undercut: Detective Pikachu
8.	Detective Pikachu	2	1	0	4	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 7 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 8 To undercut: Godzilla 2
9.	Hobbs & Shaw	1	4	3	0		Aug 2Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 9 To beat: Rocketman
10.	Rocketman	♞		♞	♞	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 9 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 10 To undercut: Men in Black International
♞	Men in Black International	8.	♞	9.	♞	10.	1Current Box Office Pos: 10 Needs to stay in the Top Ten.
♞	Yesterday					13.	Current Box Office Pos: 13 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 10 To beat: Men in Black International
♞	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	♞	♞	10.	10.		Jul 26Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 10 To beat: Men in Black International

Single Biggest Mistake by David: Putting 'Godzilla 2' at 5th. Moving it instead to 8th would have yielded a total of 68 points for 1st place.

Germain Lussier		Devindra	Jeff	David	Peter	Result	56Needs 10 more points for the win.
1.	Avengers: Endgame	0	0	0	0	0	13Current Box Office Pos: 1 Needs to hold its position.
2.	The Lion King	1	1	0	0		Jul 19Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 2 To beat: Toy Story 4
3.	Toy Story 4	1	1	0	0	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 2 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 3 To undercut: Aladdin (2019)
4.	Spider-Man: Far from Home	1	0	0	1	0	10Current Box Office Pos: 4 Needs to hold its position.
5.	The Secret Life of Pets 2	2	1	1	2	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 6 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 5 To beat: John Wick 3
6.	Hobbs & Shaw	4	1	3	3		Aug 2Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 6 To beat: The Secret Life of Pets 2
7.	Aladdin (2019)	3	1	0	1	4	3Current Box Office Pos: 3 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 7 To undercut: Detective Pikachu
8.	Detective Pikachu	2	1	0	4	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 7 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 8 To undercut: Godzilla 2
9.	Men in Black International	1	♞	♞	♞	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 10 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 9 To beat: Rocketman
10.	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	♞	♞	♞	0		Jul 26Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 10 To beat: Men in Black International
♞	Godzilla 2	9.	9.	5.	8.	8.	1Current Box Office Pos: 8 Needs to stay in the Top Ten.
♞	Rocketman	♞		10.	♞	9.	1Current Box Office Pos: 9 Needs to stay in the Top Ten.
♞	Dark Phoenix		10.			11.	Current Box Office Pos: 11 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 10 To beat: Men in Black International

Single Biggest Mistake by Germain: Putting 'Men in Black International' at 9th. Moving it instead to 10th would have yielded a total of 62 points for 3rd place.

Peter Sciretta		Devindra	Jeff	David	Germain	Result	53Needs 13 more points for the win.
1.	Avengers: Endgame	0	0	0	0	0	13Current Box Office Pos: 1 Needs to hold its position.
2.	The Lion King	1	1	0	0		Jul 19Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 2 To beat: Toy Story 4
3.	Toy Story 4	1	1	0	0	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 2 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 3 To undercut: Aladdin (2019)
4.	Detective Pikachu	2	3	4	4	3	3Current Box Office Pos: 7 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 4 To beat: Spider-Man: Far from Home
5.	Spider-Man: Far from Home	0	1	1	1	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 4 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 5 To undercut: John Wick 3
6.	Aladdin (2019)	2	2	1	1	3	3Current Box Office Pos: 3 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 6 To undercut: The Secret Life of Pets 2
7.	The Secret Life of Pets 2	0	1	1	2	1	7Current Box Office Pos: 6 Needs to lose to reach Pos: 7 To undercut: Detective Pikachu
8.	Godzilla 2	1	1	3	♞	0	10Current Box Office Pos: 8 Needs to hold its position.
9.	Hobbs & Shaw	1	4	0	3		Aug 2Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 9 To beat: Rocketman
10.	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	♞	♞	♞	0		Jul 26Current Box Office Pos: -1 Needs to gain to reach Pos: 10 To beat: Men in Black International
♞	Men in Black International	8.	♞	♞	9.	10.	1Current Box Office Pos: 10 Needs to stay in the Top Ten.
♞	John Wick 3	♞	♞			5.	1Current Box Office Pos: 5 Needs to stay in the Top Ten.
♞	Rocketman	♞		10.	♞	9.	1Current Box Office Pos: 9 Needs to stay in the Top Ten.

Single Biggest Mistake by Peter: Putting 'Detective Pikachu' at 4th. Moving it instead to 7th would have yielded a total of 68 points for 1st place.

Box Office Information courtesy of Box Office Mojo. Used with permission. Click for more info.